T H E U S E O F A P R E D I C T I O N M O D E L T O P R E V E N T A B N O R M A L W E I G H T I N C H I L D H O O D I N T H E Y O U T H H E A L T H C A R E P R A C T I C E Where ax + b = αPI tot, x = PI at birth and t = the decimal age, 0 < t ≤ 1. The mean expected PI of all measurements was: 2.28 (with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.075) at the age of 1 year. We applied our prediction model on the birth cohort of 2002 by using the predic-‐ tion model for abnormal growth. Thereby, the measured PI value (PIm), the PIe val-‐ ue and their difference were calculated for every individual child. We examined if we could already predict overweight at the age of 5 years by applying the predic-‐ tion model at the age of 1 year by comparing the PIm and the PIe values. If a child has a PIm > PIe + 2SD value at the age of 1 year, the child is at risk for overweight at the age of 5 years, according to our hypothesis. We calculated the amount of children that exceeded the different SD ranges for the overweight group and compared them to the control group to see if our hypothesis is true. The sensitivity, specificity, like-‐ lihoods ratios and the diagnostic odds ratios of our model were calculated11. The higher the score for the diagnostic odds ratio, the higher the discriminant power of the model or the test. Thereafter, we compared our prediction model with the 2 currently used methods to estimate (ab)normal growth of children: a. The often used weight for length growth chart, using a cut-‐off for overweight of + 2SD12 b. The PI calculation, using a cut-‐off for overweight of + 2SD12. We applied the 3 methods at the age of 1 year. Because only weight and length measurements at the age of 1 year were needed for the examination of the growth chart and the calculation of PI at that age, we were able to include more children for method 1 and 2 of our study (118 and 119 resp.). The mean birth weight, mean weight at the age of 1 year, mean PI at the age of 1 year, mean difference of PIm and PIe at the age of 1 year, corresponding standard deviations and their significance and 95% confidence interval were also examined for the overweight and control group by using a two sided t-‐test, to gain more in-‐ sight into the composition of the two groups, to compare the groups and to deter-‐ mine if certain parameters are significant predictors for overweight at the age of 5 years. Results Of all the 109 children, who had developed overweight at the age of 5 years, 80 children (73%) had a PIm > PIe at the age of 1 year. 50 Of these 80 children (46% of 109) had a PIm > PIe + 2SD at the age of 1 year. 93
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