D I S C U S S I O N A N D V A L O R I Z A T I O N A D D E N D U M In a recent American study where trends of obesity in childhood are analyzed, a positive trend was seen: There was a significant decrease in obesity from 14% in 2003-‐2004 to 8% in 2011-‐2012 in children aged 2 to 5 years old. Also in Germany, a study of children aged 4 to 16 years showed a decline in obesity between 2004 and 2008 among the 4 to 7 years old34. At the other ages, a stabilization was seen. In the Netherlands, the prevalence of obesity in children in the major cities (where many prevention programs have been implemented) has stabilized35. Probably prevention programs are working 36! Prediction model to detect obesity at an early age The prediction model described in this thesis makes it possible to predict if a child in the first year of life runs the risk to develop obesity at the age of five years. The prediction model can also detect the risk to develop obesity in children who still have a weight within the normal range, at the moment of investigation. The predic-‐ tion model described in this thesis is based on growth data of 387 children and tested in 120 overweight children and 120 control children. After application it appeared that the prediction model was able to predict the risk of becoming over-‐ weight in a more reliable way than other often used methods, like weight for length growth chart or the PI calculation. The prediction model can easily be used in the Youth Health Care practice, but also by general practitioners or pediatricians. The calculation formula on which the model is based can be implemented digitally. Then, it is possible, simply by adding the growth data of a child into the formula, to determine the risk of developing obesity. If the prediction model will be implemented digitally or by an app, the risk to develop obesity can be easily discovered by just pushing a button. Not only health care practitioners can use the digital prediction model, also children and parents can use it. The advantage is that monitoring of the risk of developing obesi-‐ ty is much easier, a possible disadvantage of the use at home is that regular moni-‐ toring appointment by youth health care practitioners are skipped. But after all, a more specific and accurate prediction of the risk of developing obesity is a great step forward to prevent obesity and its severe medical, psychosocial and economic consequences. 113
Proefschrift binnenwerk Manon Ernst_DEF.indd
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