T H E U S E O F A P R E D I C T I O N M O D E L T O P R E V E N T A B N O R M A L W E I G H T I N C H I L D H O O D I N T H E Y O U T H H E A L T H C A R E P R A C T I C E Chapter 6 The use of a prediction model to prevent abnormal weight in childhood in the Youth Health Care Practice CHAPTER 6 The use of a prediction model to prevent abnormal weight in childhood in the Youth Health Care Practice Obesity in childhood is an increasing health problem and once it has been established, it becomes very difficult to solve this problem. Accordingly, we created a prediction model to detect the tendency of becoming overweight in childhood at a moment overweight has not been established yet. Data for this study were retrospectively collected at the youth health care department of the Regional Public Health Service South Limburg, Maastricht. Child records of 120 children, born in 2002, who developed overweight at the age of 5 years, were collected. As a control group, we also collected data of 120 children, born in 2002, in the same region, who did not develop overweight or obesity at the age of 5 years. Based on longitudinal data, the expected value of the Ponderal Index (PIe) at a certain age (t) until the age of 1 year, depending on the child’s starting position at birth was calculated. According to our hypothesis, a child is at risk for overweight at the age of 5 years, if the measured PI value (PIm) > PIe + 2SD. We applied the prediction model to the overweight and non overweight group to test our hypothesis. We compared our prediction model with 2 other methods to estimate (ab)normal growth of children; The often used weight for length growth chart and The PI calculation. Out of those 3 methods, our prediction model appears to be the best predictor for overweight at the age of 5 years. By using this prediction model, we are able to estimate the growth pattern of an infant. If the actual growth pattern of the infant does not fit into the expected growth, intervention may be needed to prevent abnormal growth. By implementing the prediction model in the electronic child record, health care practitioners could use this model in preventing overweight in children at an early age. This chapter is submitted for publication by: Manon AB Ernst, Michelle YG Simons, Maria WJ Jansen, Luc JI Zimmermann and Willem JM Gerver. 89
Proefschrift binnenwerk Manon Ernst_DEF.indd
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