A P R E D I C T I O N M O D E L T O P R E V E N T A B N O R M A L W E I G H T I N C H I L D H O O D Chapter 5 A prediction model to prevent abnormal weight in childhood CHAPTER 5 A prediction model to prevent abnormal weight in childhood The concern about obesity in childhood is based on the hypothesis, that it leads to obesity in adult-‐ hood and is thereby a risk for developing the metabolic syndrome. The question arises whether or not it is possible to detect at an early age, those children who are at risk for developing obesity and to create a prediction model to prevent abnormal weight. For that reason, the data from the Dutch longitudinal growth study, collected in 1995-‐1999, by Gerver et al, were used to estimate the change in Ponderal Index (PI) and Body Mass Index (BMI) during the first four years of life. It became clear that the PI during the first year, as well as the BMI from the age of 1 year onwards, is changing for most children, dependent on their starting value. This phenomenon can be partly ascribed to the regression to the mean. A prediction model was developed to estimate the growth pattern of infants. Based on the individual growth patterns, we could estimate a PI or BMI after a certain period of growth by using formulas representing the “normal” growth of a child. If the actual growth pattern of an individual child does not fit into the expected growth pattern, intervention may be needed to prevent obesity later on and thereby reduce the risk of the metabolic syndrome. This prediction model could be used by the youth health care preventing obesity in childhood. This chapter is submitted for publication by: Manon AB Ernst, Huub MH Creemers, Maria WJ Jansen, Angèle JGM Gerver, Luc JI Zimmermann and Willem JM Gerver 75
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